16 losers in a row. Not a joke and not an exaggeration.
I came in early this morning to trade GE and Bank of Amer. earnings. They barely missed and there were only small opportunities that I found riskier than the reward.
I waited from 5:15am until 7 am until I made my first trade. Oil had popped on Citigroup's earnings, which were BS because all the gains were from the sale Smith Barney. I sold oil right near the high, and took a tiny loser. Oil then sold off and came back so I sold it again. Again, I took a small loser and watched it melt down 60 straight ticks. I sold again when it retraced one more time, and took a very small loser, only to watch it sell off. However, I was starting to think that maybe this isn't so bearish. I keep selling and it comes back.
I changed my opinion and bought a low, again, took a very very small loser and watched it rally. I bought another low and held it for a while, and got out because the timing of it wasn't so great. Again, another small loser. The market sold off a little, I bought what I thought was a 3 lot, but luckily was only a 1 lot, and it tanked 25 ticks. I took a 25 tick loser and I only knew I bought a 1 lot when I clicked out and ended up short at the low a 2 lot, and it popped back up against me.
After that I waited a while because I wasn't seeing anything and I wanted to wait to see how the markets reacted after equities opened. I was noticing that as oil was rallying, 10 yr would sell off and SP would rally. However, oil wouldn't rally unless heating oil and gasoline would either. I waited and watched as the SP sold off on the open. I saw the 10 year rally a little and oil popped, but heating oil and unleaded gas did not. I sold oil, and sat on it, took no heat, and put a stop in for a scratch. After a few minutes, I was out. I tried again when oil made new highs, but heating and unleaded didn't, SP were selling off, and 10 yr was rallying. Again, it was a winner at first, but then I took a scratch. This should have been a warning sign. Oil made new highs, again, nothing else was rallying, in fact, now the euro looked weak, so I sold oil a third time. This time it popped and big size came in and I took a 15 tick loser. That was it, I was done for the day. I lost too much money.
After reviewing my trades, my first 6-7 I noticed that most of them would have been winners. In fact, I only got out because they either came back to scratch or went just a little bit against me. They never even reached my stops. I just panicked and got out. This is very frustrating. This led me to take bigger risk later when I was frustrated and making poor decisions. Ultimately, it was a combination of bad decisions and bad risk management that caused today to be painful.
In retrospect, oil was strong, by far the strongest market, yet that was the one I was fading and selling because nothing else looked very strong. Everything else told me it was all bullshit, but it was my lack of identifying what was going on that was bullshit. Ugh. One day it works and the next day it doesn't. Yesterday the relationships I noticed made me money and today they cost me.
At least today was a manageable loss, and not out of hand. I have a lot to clean up and look at.
For next trading session, here is what I need to do. Wait more patiently for my entries. If the range is from 10-20, I cannot buy in the 15-20 range and I cannot sell in the 10-15 range. My risk is too great. I need to wait so sell near the high of the ranges and buy near the low of the ranges.
Also, I need to look at getting out of oil. Oil just frustrates me. Its a product where I lack so many edges, thereby making it so difficult to be profitable. If I can start trading more 10 yr or Eurodollar, where the playing field is more equal, then I can find decent trades and set ups.
I need to forget about the day and just focus on the weekend and taking a little break.
Friday, July 17, 2009
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Frustrating Trading
Better tone it down a little bit. I was really heated the other day. Just made so many mistakes and didn't follow any of my rules. I have no one to blame but myself, and that only makes it harder. Its like pushing against a cement wall, and then trying harder to run through it . . . it just hurts worse. I gotta slow down and take it easier. I have to definitely take it easier on myself and let the market show me what it wants to do, instead of forcing it.
I was just clicking away, fading without reason. I have to find better reasons. ugh, what a tough way to earn an easy living
I was just clicking away, fading without reason. I have to find better reasons. ugh, what a tough way to earn an easy living
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
Some Light, Finally
I spent hours last reviewing my trades since June 1, 2009. I learned a great deal about what I am doing right and wrong.
First, ill talk about the bad. The past few days I have been gambling. I just trade to trade, all without thought. I am not a scalper, so this is very destructive. There is a rush when I right, and a crushing feeling when I am wrong, but I know better. I made 58 trades, 48, 54, 46 and 49 trades on the days I traded without any thought or game plan. I lost $1000, made $2500, lost $4000, lost $1200, lost $2200. Clearly this does not work. I looked back and noticed I had been doing this a lot. I just got away with it at first, so it reinforced bad trading habits. I also saw I was buying highs and selling lows without thought. I took big losers where I did not know when I wrong. I reversed and just jumped into the markets blindly.
Now for the good. When I put together ideas and thoughts, and wait for my entry levels, I can make money. When I am patient and limit my trades to around 15-20 trades, and really wait for good setups, I can do really well. I can definitely earn a nice living if I keep this discipline. I must be honest, it can be very boring, and that my problem. Also, when I know where I am wrong and I just get out, I do well too. Bottom line, I can find good scenarios and make decent trades with thought and patience.
Today I came in with a very easy and simple game plan. start small and build from there with good ideas and scenarios. I was trading smaller than I normally do, but obeying my plan. I finally caught a 25 tick winner in the euro and made about $1,000. I then sat patiently and followed my rules for a little while longer, adding a little to my day.
However, I lost it a bit at the end, got pissed off and took some very big swings. Luckily, and I stress luckily, I made it back and called it when I got right near my high. I walked out up $1300, and it was great because I basically followed my rules and I still had a lot more to do right. I can do this, I can make money when I do the right thing.
I am going to tweak my plan for tomorrow and add some new things. I need to keep this up and do a lot more of the good and less of the bad. Patience and thought are the keys to this. Avoiding the gambling is also very important.
Lets try one more trade and one more day of good things. Patience until at least 8:30 or when oil stats come out. Small size and build from there.
First, ill talk about the bad. The past few days I have been gambling. I just trade to trade, all without thought. I am not a scalper, so this is very destructive. There is a rush when I right, and a crushing feeling when I am wrong, but I know better. I made 58 trades, 48, 54, 46 and 49 trades on the days I traded without any thought or game plan. I lost $1000, made $2500, lost $4000, lost $1200, lost $2200. Clearly this does not work. I looked back and noticed I had been doing this a lot. I just got away with it at first, so it reinforced bad trading habits. I also saw I was buying highs and selling lows without thought. I took big losers where I did not know when I wrong. I reversed and just jumped into the markets blindly.
Now for the good. When I put together ideas and thoughts, and wait for my entry levels, I can make money. When I am patient and limit my trades to around 15-20 trades, and really wait for good setups, I can do really well. I can definitely earn a nice living if I keep this discipline. I must be honest, it can be very boring, and that my problem. Also, when I know where I am wrong and I just get out, I do well too. Bottom line, I can find good scenarios and make decent trades with thought and patience.
Today I came in with a very easy and simple game plan. start small and build from there with good ideas and scenarios. I was trading smaller than I normally do, but obeying my plan. I finally caught a 25 tick winner in the euro and made about $1,000. I then sat patiently and followed my rules for a little while longer, adding a little to my day.
However, I lost it a bit at the end, got pissed off and took some very big swings. Luckily, and I stress luckily, I made it back and called it when I got right near my high. I walked out up $1300, and it was great because I basically followed my rules and I still had a lot more to do right. I can do this, I can make money when I do the right thing.
I am going to tweak my plan for tomorrow and add some new things. I need to keep this up and do a lot more of the good and less of the bad. Patience and thought are the keys to this. Avoiding the gambling is also very important.
Lets try one more trade and one more day of good things. Patience until at least 8:30 or when oil stats come out. Small size and build from there.
Worse Monday
Monday could be the epitomy of what I do wrong. I came in late, with little sleep, and as soon as I got to my computer, I jumped into the market. I was bearish and I sold it without thinking or finding a good entry. I took a loser, and took another loser selling it. I sold it again, and the market swept down my way. I then waited patiently, and turned around and bought it for no reason. In fact, I chose so poorly that I took a 30 tick loser in about 15 seconds. I did it again, and again, and I was down $1500 within the first 15 minutes of trading. Now my limit is $800, and I know I made some bad mistakes, but I convinced my manager that I could trade small and make some good decisions.
I actually battled back, to where I was down only $400. I told myself if I got back to even I would leave, or if I got down $800 I would call it a day. Then I heard the guys around me say that CIT had just jumped about 40%, from $1 to $1.40 and it looked like the government might bail them out. Without hesistation I bought the market and it instantly sold off. I bought the high. I figured I wasn't alone, so I reversed and sold and the market popped up to new highs. I lost $1500 in about 20 seconds. I was down $1900. I put on one more trade and lost and left down $2200. Again, my limit is $800. Ugh, here I go again.
Needless to say, this is very bad. I am losing so much and I cannot control my downside limit. In fact, I blow right through it. I am creating this little disaster myself, and it is totally in my control. I needed to figure out what was really going in my trading. I needed to dig deeper. I am just do down in the dumps.
I actually battled back, to where I was down only $400. I told myself if I got back to even I would leave, or if I got down $800 I would call it a day. Then I heard the guys around me say that CIT had just jumped about 40%, from $1 to $1.40 and it looked like the government might bail them out. Without hesistation I bought the market and it instantly sold off. I bought the high. I figured I wasn't alone, so I reversed and sold and the market popped up to new highs. I lost $1500 in about 20 seconds. I was down $1900. I put on one more trade and lost and left down $2200. Again, my limit is $800. Ugh, here I go again.
Needless to say, this is very bad. I am losing so much and I cannot control my downside limit. In fact, I blow right through it. I am creating this little disaster myself, and it is totally in my control. I needed to figure out what was really going in my trading. I needed to dig deeper. I am just do down in the dumps.
Rough Friday
Well, Friday was a tough one. I made the changes I wanted to make for the day, took my time, and started off on a good note. I was fairly patient, and kept my losers small. I managed to get up about $800 by lunch time, and thought I would call it a day. My worst case scenario was that I lose the $800 and walk out even for the day.
I wish that was what happened. I lost $1900 very quickly, making 12 losing trades in a row. What a disaster. I traded the money, chased the money, and put no thought into my trades. Basically, I kept chasing the last up move, and I kept buying highs, puking the trade and reversing, only to be pissed and buy the high again. Ugh. I made 32 trades, and I would say that I put almost no thought into anything I did.
Now the worst part is, I had all weekend to think about it. To think about what I did wrong and what I need to right.
I wish that was what happened. I lost $1900 very quickly, making 12 losing trades in a row. What a disaster. I traded the money, chased the money, and put no thought into my trades. Basically, I kept chasing the last up move, and I kept buying highs, puking the trade and reversing, only to be pissed and buy the high again. Ugh. I made 32 trades, and I would say that I put almost no thought into anything I did.
Now the worst part is, I had all weekend to think about it. To think about what I did wrong and what I need to right.
Thursday, July 9, 2009
Bank of England and 30 year re-opening
So I went in early this morning to trade the Bank of England news at 6 am. I slept horribly last night and made a huge error before the release. I pulled up my Swiss Franc book and I was about to trade it, but luckily I noticed about 10 seconds before the release. Anyways, the release came and went, and I lost a little because I traded the Euro and Crude Oil. Whatever. Bottom line, it was frustrating, and it put me in a bad spot before any markets were really moving.
I made so many trades today, in fact, I made way too many. I was chasing money all day. I was up, then I was down, and then up and down. I went into oil, euro, 10 yr, and back and forth all day. It was not very productive.
I was bullish most of the morning because the bank of England basically put and end to quantitative easing, and most markets were up early. Equities and oil had been selling off the past few days, so it felt like today might start retracing. Anyways, I was buying oil from 61.80 to 60. Clearly that was a mistake, and my bias was wrong. Thankfully I was not down too much.
I finally sold it a few times and took some decent winners and then bought near the low when I saw some strength in heating oil and gasoline. I actually managed to get up a little bit. I was starting to find a few 10 cent winners and got up decently.
I waited for the 30 year re-opening, but traded that poorly. I was up and down after it, and only made a little bit after it. I walked out when oil closed, right near my highs.
I made 58 trades today in 5 different markets. Granted oil moved a lot during the day, I think this was excessive. I lacked a lot of discipline today and I failed to put together any great ideas. It is hard to gauge what I did right and what I did wrong because I made money. Actually, I made $2500, a lot more than I should have. Maybe I am lucky . . . who knows
I need to review, I need to really spend some good time reviewing. When I make too many trades, it is hard to separate the good ideas from the bad ideas.
Tomorrow I want to make only a few trades and write down all my reasons. I need to put together what is working and what isn't.
I made so many trades today, in fact, I made way too many. I was chasing money all day. I was up, then I was down, and then up and down. I went into oil, euro, 10 yr, and back and forth all day. It was not very productive.
I was bullish most of the morning because the bank of England basically put and end to quantitative easing, and most markets were up early. Equities and oil had been selling off the past few days, so it felt like today might start retracing. Anyways, I was buying oil from 61.80 to 60. Clearly that was a mistake, and my bias was wrong. Thankfully I was not down too much.
I finally sold it a few times and took some decent winners and then bought near the low when I saw some strength in heating oil and gasoline. I actually managed to get up a little bit. I was starting to find a few 10 cent winners and got up decently.
I waited for the 30 year re-opening, but traded that poorly. I was up and down after it, and only made a little bit after it. I walked out when oil closed, right near my highs.
I made 58 trades today in 5 different markets. Granted oil moved a lot during the day, I think this was excessive. I lacked a lot of discipline today and I failed to put together any great ideas. It is hard to gauge what I did right and what I did wrong because I made money. Actually, I made $2500, a lot more than I should have. Maybe I am lucky . . . who knows
I need to review, I need to really spend some good time reviewing. When I make too many trades, it is hard to separate the good ideas from the bad ideas.
Tomorrow I want to make only a few trades and write down all my reasons. I need to put together what is working and what isn't.
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
New Post
Well, I managed to go on a good streak. I was able to straighten out my June, and make a little bit of money on tiny size. I covered all expenses, my draw, and chipped away about 20% of my debt. I felt like I was on the way to getting out of debt, and figuring things out to a certain extent.
I stopped writing in my blog, and I also became lackadaisical in my review and preparation. These last three trading days have been a total nightmare for me. I knew that when I was trading last Friday, I was not making good decisions, but felt alright because I kept my loss within my limit. I had been making about 2-2.5 times what I was losing, so it was an acceptable loss. I knew I was making very bad decisions, but I left believing that it wasn't that detrimental because it was a small loss. I did not review my trades, but I felt like I should have.
So then I came in Tuesday. I was very tired and on edge. I felt like I should take it easy, but I did not. Instead, I completely over traded. Made some very bad decisions and some ok ones. I managed to get up about $850, and I had almost made back Fridays loss. Then, I made one losing trade and kept chasing and chasing and chasing. In a matter of a few minutes, in three different markets, I lost $2,000 and walked out down $1200. I was really pissed off. I printed my trades, saw I made about 50 trades with no reasons, but failed to review again.
Today my goal was to not do anything until oil stats, watch the tour de france, and review my trades the last few weeks. Obviously, I did not do what I planned. I got in a little late, saw a move developing, and jumped into the market. I had a nice 20 tick winner in oil, but never got out and took a small loss. I bought the high of the move and then watched the market move lower. I tried selling a few more times, but only managed to lose. I was frustrated to say the least. Before I knew it, it was 8 am, I was down $670, and pissed off. I then bought two highs, and lost on both, and I ended up down $1500 before oil stats. I was livid. I extended my limit for the day to about $2000 and waited for oil stats. Of course when oil stats came out, I bought twice what I was allowed and took a massive 40 tick loser. I lost $2500 on the trade. My limit is $800, so it was very bad. Normally I lose 5 ticks and get out when I have a bad trade, but I froze and just hoped the market would come back. Instead, I took it in the teeth. I lost $4,000 today, about 5 times more than I allow myself to lose on any given day.
I need to get back to what got me on the right path. I need to review my trades everyday and keep up my blog. The hardest thing is keeping disciplined when things are better because all I want to do is take a breath, relax, and enjoy the good days. This is such a mistake. I need to keep the same intensity and work ethic when things are going well as when I am trading poorly. This is just another test in this survival time.
I have a lot of work to do tonight, a lot of reviewing, and I need to figure out what I have been doing well and what I have been doing poorly.
Without reviewing, I am guessing that I am buying highs and selling lows without reasons. My entries are very poor. I have bad risk management. I am taking too big of losers. I have no reasons for my trades other than that I feel like things moved to far too fast.
What I need to do is slow down, wait for my reasons, take my quick losers and get out and just book profits. No need to look for big moves, just do what I do best. Have multiple reasons for trades, go with trend, wait for scenarios to develop, and keep my losers very small.
Time to review and see what I find . . . . .
I stopped writing in my blog, and I also became lackadaisical in my review and preparation. These last three trading days have been a total nightmare for me. I knew that when I was trading last Friday, I was not making good decisions, but felt alright because I kept my loss within my limit. I had been making about 2-2.5 times what I was losing, so it was an acceptable loss. I knew I was making very bad decisions, but I left believing that it wasn't that detrimental because it was a small loss. I did not review my trades, but I felt like I should have.
So then I came in Tuesday. I was very tired and on edge. I felt like I should take it easy, but I did not. Instead, I completely over traded. Made some very bad decisions and some ok ones. I managed to get up about $850, and I had almost made back Fridays loss. Then, I made one losing trade and kept chasing and chasing and chasing. In a matter of a few minutes, in three different markets, I lost $2,000 and walked out down $1200. I was really pissed off. I printed my trades, saw I made about 50 trades with no reasons, but failed to review again.
Today my goal was to not do anything until oil stats, watch the tour de france, and review my trades the last few weeks. Obviously, I did not do what I planned. I got in a little late, saw a move developing, and jumped into the market. I had a nice 20 tick winner in oil, but never got out and took a small loss. I bought the high of the move and then watched the market move lower. I tried selling a few more times, but only managed to lose. I was frustrated to say the least. Before I knew it, it was 8 am, I was down $670, and pissed off. I then bought two highs, and lost on both, and I ended up down $1500 before oil stats. I was livid. I extended my limit for the day to about $2000 and waited for oil stats. Of course when oil stats came out, I bought twice what I was allowed and took a massive 40 tick loser. I lost $2500 on the trade. My limit is $800, so it was very bad. Normally I lose 5 ticks and get out when I have a bad trade, but I froze and just hoped the market would come back. Instead, I took it in the teeth. I lost $4,000 today, about 5 times more than I allow myself to lose on any given day.
I need to get back to what got me on the right path. I need to review my trades everyday and keep up my blog. The hardest thing is keeping disciplined when things are better because all I want to do is take a breath, relax, and enjoy the good days. This is such a mistake. I need to keep the same intensity and work ethic when things are going well as when I am trading poorly. This is just another test in this survival time.
I have a lot of work to do tonight, a lot of reviewing, and I need to figure out what I have been doing well and what I have been doing poorly.
Without reviewing, I am guessing that I am buying highs and selling lows without reasons. My entries are very poor. I have bad risk management. I am taking too big of losers. I have no reasons for my trades other than that I feel like things moved to far too fast.
What I need to do is slow down, wait for my reasons, take my quick losers and get out and just book profits. No need to look for big moves, just do what I do best. Have multiple reasons for trades, go with trend, wait for scenarios to develop, and keep my losers very small.
Time to review and see what I find . . . . .
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